Conservatives Reach Record-Breaking Lead Over Liberal Party
Earlier this month, several leading Canadian market research firms identified that the Conservative party has a big lead over Liberals.
Abacus Data, a market analysis firm found that the Conservative party has a 20% lead over Liberals. According to them, “If an election were held today, 44% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 24%, the NDP at 17% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ is at 29% in Quebec.” The survey was conducted from April 3 to 9, 2024 and featured the responses of 2 000 adults.
Similarly, Léger, another firm, found that Conservatives have a 16% lead nationally. Their poll took place online March 23 to 25, 2024, and included the opinions of 1 605 Canadians aged 18 or older. Among other data, they also found that: “Canadians think Pierre Poilievre is the leader who would make the best Prime Minister among the federal party leaders (29%), ahead of Justin Trudeau (17%) and Jagmeet Singh (17%).” and that “Two-thirds of Canadians (66%) are dissatisfied with Trudeau’s government.
The data was collected through opt-in panels online, so cannot be assigned a margin of error. However, Léger estimates that, “a probability sample of 1,605 respondents would have a margin of error of ±2.45 %, 19 times out of 20.”
Both Abacus Data and Léger are ranked highly in 338Canada’s “Ratings of Canadian Pollsters,” with Léger being the highest ranked in the entire list.
Poilievre moments before being removed from the house on Tuesday, April 30. The incident saw a slight increase in support for the Conservatives amongst voters.
This lead can be caused by a variety of factors, including Justin Trudeau’s carbon tax hike, concerns over inflation, and the perceived ineffectiveness of the Liberal government in addressing critical issues such as housing affordability. Interestingly, Conservatives saw a slight bump of a round 1.5pp after Liberal Speaker Greg Fergus removed Poilievre from question period last week, a move that has been criticised by both conservatives and progressives, including former NDP Leader Tom Mulcair.
The carbon tax hike is a controversial topic among Conservatives since they believe it contributes to rising costs of living, impacting everything from fuel prices to groceries. Critics of the policy say that it places a burden on low and middle-income families without providing significant environmental benefits. This sentiment likely has driven traditional Liberal supporters to change their perspectives.
Rising inflation under the current Liberal government has further fueled dissatisfaction among Conservatives. The Conservative party's focus on cost-of-living relief and a “common sense solution” has resonated with many voters seeking practical solutions to everyday problems.
Sources/Further Reading:
https://abacusdata.ca/conservative-open-up-largest-lead-yet/
