Tories Triumph, Trudeau stumbles in Toronto By-election
On June 24, Conservative Don Stewart beat out Liberal Leslie Church in a Toronto-St. Paul’s by-election to fill the vacancy resulting from Carolyn Bennet’s resignation. The seat, a Liberal stronghold since 1993, became a focal point as it became more and more clear that Canadian voters are dissatisfied with Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party. While Stewart’s margin of victory was small (1.6 percentage points), this shocked many analysts, as Carolyn Bennet had previously won the seat by 24 points, representing a greater than 25-point swing in favour of the Conservatives.
Pollsters noted that even a small win for the Liberals would represent a moral victory for the Conservatives given the riding’s deep red roots. However, with an unexpected win for the Conservatives, urban voters have sent a resounding message to both Trudeau and Poillievre regarding their intentions in the next election. As the CPC has not won a seat in urban Toronto since 2011, this could be an early indicator of a shift in middle class urban and suburban votes towards the Conservative Party. Ridings like London West, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, and Charlottetown show strong leanings towards the Conservative Party in recent opinion polls.
Don Stewart speaks to reporters during election night in Toronto-St. Paul’s (Image: CBC News)
Trudeau’s popularity has stumbled in recent years, and next year’s election is a foregone conclusion. With that in mind, many analysts are wondering how much time Trudeau has left. His father resigned from the role of Prime Minister when faced with an overwhelming Progressive Conservative lead by Brian Mulroney. Some are wondering whether Trudeau will step down and make way for another to lead the party. Some have speculated that Mark Carney, Chrystia Freeland, and Francois Phillipe Champagne are vying for the job. However, any of the three would be lame ducks as Prime Ministers leading up to the 2025 election.
With the house recessed until September 9, federal party leaders will spend time campaigning around the country. During this period, we will see whether the Liberals continue to market Trudeau as the face of the party, or if he makes way for others. This could give us a good indication as to whether or not he will lead the Liberals into the next election.
Stewart’s surprise victory could deal another blow to the Liberals in their campaign effort as the loss is incredibly demoralising. The Liberal Party is struggling for volunteers and donations, and a party weakened to the point of losing a seat they’ve held for 30 years will continue to lose support.
Between now and next fall, Conservatives will look to build on the momentum of Stewart’s victory as they seek to elect some 200+ MPs per curtain projections in the next election. The CCYA congratulates MP Stewart and wishes him the best of luck on the hill.
Sources/Further Reading:
https://338canada.com/
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/byelection-polls-liberal-conservative-ballot-vote-1.7243748
