Two Key Numbers from the Durham By-Election
Last week, Conservative nominee Jamil Jivani coasted to a resounding victory in the March 4 Durham by-election. The 36-year-old radio host and commentator will assume a seat previously held by high-profile Conservatives including Erin O’Toole and Bev Oda. With a federal election scheduled for October 2025 at the latest, Jivani’s election offers a look into the next election for Canada as a whole, and the Conservative Party of Canada. Two key numbers from the by-election are particularly indicative: 35 percentage points, representing Jivani’s margin of victory, and 27.87%, representing voter turnout/
Durham is traditionally a safe riding for the CPC, although Liberals have held the riding as recently as 2004. Jivani’s margin of victory offers insight into changing voter preferences and opportunities for the party. A mixed riding, Durham contains suburban neighbourhoods in Oshawa, Bowmanville, and Clarington. The riding has a mixed economy, composed of rural agriculture and a well-developed knowledge sector. The Conservative Party’s ability to win votes in these mid-sized cities adjacent to large metropolitan areas will have a great influence on their success in the next federal election. Jivani’s success could be reflective of the increased willingness of knowledge workers in midsized cities to vote Conservative. Jivani’s victory may be an indicator of a blue wave in the areas surrounding Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal and in other mid-sized cities like Kitchener-Waterloo, London, and Edmonton.
Jivani’s margin of victory is higher than any other candidate in the riding in recent history. Carrying 57.44% of the vote, Jivani beat out Liberal Robert Rock by just under 35 percentage points, compared to a 16-point margin in the 2021 election. It is important to note that Erin O’Toole, then leader of the Conservative Party, was the incumbent seeking re-election in 2021. Incumbents, especially party leaders, usually enjoy an especially easy election cycle in safe ridings. The fact that Jivani more than doubled O’Toole’s margin of victory shows voter’s interest in the Conservative Party of Canada and fatigue with Trudeau’s Liberals. Canada 338 projects a 16-point margin in favour of the CPC in current popular polling. While it’s no hidden secret that Conservatives lead nationwide, a close look at the Durham by-election results provide insight into the fact that this margin is higher than anticipated.
Turnout in the Durham by-election was lower than usual. Under 33,000 voters out of 116,000 eligible cast a ballot, equating to a turnout of 27.87%. This turnout is less than half of the riding’s turnout in 2021 and reflects a nationwide trend towards low voter turnout. Although by-elections usually have lower turnout, it is an 8 percentage point decrease from the 2012 by-election in Durham. The particularly low turnout rate for last week’s contest raises some alarms.
Turnout could be lower at the 2021 federal elections as Canadians become disillusioned with their options. All parties will need to work to get voters out by connecting with them at an individual riding level, especially if the Conservatives hope to flip ridings. The CPC will have to ensure that they get suburban voters out to vote in Liberal ridings they hope to flip.
The Conservative Party has shown potential to reach and win over suburban voters in large metropolitan areas with Jivani’s election and will need to continue that momentum. This grassroots approach in suburban ridings, which Jivani has criticized his predecessor O’Toole for not following, will be the key to forming a government for the Conservative Party of Canada.
As Jivani begins his tenure in Ottawa, we wish him the best of luck now and in the 2025 election.
